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Who's afraid of the Big Bad El Niño?
El Niño is not Global Warming (except in Global-average Land). They have different physical causes and different spatial impact, even though…
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R. Saravanan
The perils of predicting perils: (mis)calculating wet-bulb temperature
Many assumptions lurk behind climate risk assessments. Small errors in the average can mean large errors in the tail risk.
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R. Saravanan
Texas Heatwave and Occam's Razor
Did the flapping of a butterfly's wings in Brazil (or elsewhere) cause a heatwave in Texas? Yes, and climate change made it worse. That's the simple…
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R. Saravanan
How to judge a model beauty contest?
Model meritocracy is a good idea, but the devil is in the details
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R. Saravanan
What to expect when you’re expecting a better climate model
Irreducible uncertainties associated with internal variability and human actions limit our ability to predict long-term climate change. Higher model…
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R. Saravanan
Strange weather in the multiverse of climate
We cannot predict our weather universe but we can choose our emission multiverse
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R. Saravanan
Climate Startups, Carbon Offsets, and Crypto
Theranos, WeWork ... Carbonos? With startups selling products that affect the planet’s health, physical checks are more important than fancy crypto. The…
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R. Saravanan
Why are the (climate) numbers so round?
Climate target numbers are approximate. Their roundness reflects that.
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R. Saravanan
Hurricane Fed: The New Climate Stress Test for Banks
The Fed’s new hurricane-based risk assessment is well-intentioned but poorly formulated. Since future hurricane probabilities are hard to predict, a…
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R. Saravanan
Can we predict global warming using only statistics?
Not if it is unprecedented and nonlinear. You can't do statistics with a sample size of less than one. Science is our only hope.
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R. Saravanan
Can we predict global climate tipping points?
Nonlinearity generates tipping points, but it also make them hard to predict
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R. Saravanan
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